Markets could experience volatility today as options expire; healthcare stocks are also being sympathetic to UnitedHealthCare's unhealthy quarterly report and performance of weight loss drug makers' stocks. Markets are recovering from recent lows: Did the "Death Cross" mark the bottom? Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks criticizing President Trump's tariff policies, highlighting their potential to exacerbate inflation and slow economic growth has reignited tensions between Powell and Trump, reminiscent of their earlier disputes during President Trump's first term.​ UnitedHealthCare is struggling with Medicare and Medicaid costs; drug stocks are part of a sector rotation story that includes weight loss pills and clinical trials; Lance and Michael discuss the relative relevance of the Dow vs the S&P, sector rotations, and the danger of listening too closely to negative narratives in the media.  SEG-1: Options Expirations to Generate Market Volatility SEG-2: Powell vs Trump: Liquidity Problems SEG-3: The Saga of UnitedHealthCare SEG-4: Dealing with the Dow vs S&P: Sector Rotations Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mt6uvwuEjCQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Swaps And Basis Trades Warn Of Mounting Liquidity Problems" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/swaps-and-basis-trades-warn-of-mounting-liquidity-problems/ “Curb Your Enthusiasm” In 2025" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/curb-your-enthusiasm-in-2025/ "The Dollar And Inflation: Don’t Believe The Hype" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollar-and-inflation-dont-believe-the-hype/ "Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/yield-spreads-suggest-the-risk-isnt-over-yet/ "Basis Trade Sent Yields Soaring – Is It A Warning?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/basis-trade-sent-yields-soaring-is-it-a-warning/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Did the "Death Cross" Mark a Market Low?" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBl6GOYthE8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "A Dozen Ways to Prepare for Recession" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8jmA-coFbo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #TrumpVsPowell #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Election2025 #MonetaryPolicy #MarketLow #EconomicActivity #DeathCross #MarketConsolidation #CorrectiveCycle #MarketLow #TariffImpact #JeromePowell #DonaldTrump #FederalReserve #RecessionReady #FinancialPlanning #EconomicDownturn #MoneyTips #RecessionProof #RecessionSignals #BondMarketWatch #CreditSpreads #EconomicRisk #FederalReserve #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Markets are trying to recover from recent lows, and we're on a short-term buy signal; markets are not really over bought quite yet. More consolidation would not be surprising, particularly with the "Death Cross" of the 50-DMA with the 200-DMA. There is cause for caution here, because, historically, the majority of the time (outside of a recessionary event-driven market), the "Death Cross" is most commonly associated with market lows than at the beginning of a corrective cycle. Unless there is a recession or a credit-related event in the markets, these tend to be fairly short-lived: Generally three- to four-months. It does provide overhead resistance, and suggests markets will remain consolidating for a time. Don't get caught up in negative headines; these things are usually not as bearish as the financial media would have you believe. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBl6GOYthE8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Frontrunning Tariffs Boosts Economic Activity" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/frontrunning-tariffs-boosts-economic-activity/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketLow #EconomicActivity #DeathCross #MarketConsolidation #CorrectiveCycle #MarketBottom #TariffWar #BondMarket #DownsideRisk #Tariffs #MarketCorrection #MarketPullback #MarketRally #MarketBounce #200DMA #MarketSupport #MarketLows #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Lance Roberts' opening monologue covers Easter prep, DMA Death Crosses, and rising recession risk; an earnings season update (so far, okay), the lack of forward guidance, and negative earnings revisions (except in the Russell 2000); the significance of the 50-DMA crossing below the 200-DMA: Know the context. Event-driven vs. Construct-driven corrections; Scott Bessent and tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation; what if the US and China reach an accord? Defining Bear Markets vs Corrections; what to do to prepare for Recessions; what comes next, after tariffs? Is now the best time to take RMD's, or wait until EOY? Tariffs are "The Art of the Deal." Charitable ways to take RMD's. Donuts, 8-Balls, & Tax Planning: strategies for buying & selling; the danger of being overly negative. SEG-1: Recession Risk Rises SEG-2: When the Death Cross Occurs SEG-3: Bear Market vs Correction - How to Prepare for Recession SEG-4: Strategies for Buying and Selling Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8jmA-coFbo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: “Curb Your Enthusiasm” In 2025" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/curb-your-enthusiasm-in-2025/ "The Dollar And Inflation: Don’t Believe The Hype" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollar-and-inflation-dont-believe-the-hype/ "Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/yield-spreads-suggest-the-risk-isnt-over-yet/ "Basis Trade Sent Yields Soaring – Is It A Warning?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/basis-trade-sent-yields-soaring-is-it-a-warning/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "DMA Death Cross Signals Consolidation," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9A7En3WnClw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "It's Tax Day!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYhGAfYYmZk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #DeathCross #MarketConsolidation #CorrectiveCycle #TariffImpact #RecessionReady #FinancialPlanning #EconomicDownturn #MoneyTips #RecessionProof #RecessionSignals #BondMarketWatch #CreditSpreads #EconomicRisk #FederalReserve #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Markets will open a little weaker this morning: Tariffs have not gone away, and Nvidia says it will take a $5-Billion charge on an AI chip they can ship overseas because of the ban. Still, Nvidia continues to outperform the market. The bigger news headlines will be about "The Death Cross" of the 50-DMA crossing below the 200-DMA, which will provide more aggressive overhead resistance for stock prices as they try to recover. Basically what this indicates is a continuation of market consolidation in a corrective period. "Death Cross!" does not mean the next financial crisis is imminent. There are two types of Corrective Markets: Event-driven and Construct-driven, or shorter-term vs longer-term. Tariffs are the current event, and markets will price-in the effects. These tend to last about 90-days. Constructive-driven corrections are triggered by credit issues or meltdowns like the Dot-com Crisis, and typically take up to 18-months to complete. Markets are currently in a cycle where bases are being formed, and the corrective process is nearly concluded. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9A7En3WnClw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Dollar And Inflation: Don’t Believe The Hype" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollar-and-inflation-dont-believe-the-hype/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #DeathCross #MarketConsolidation #CorrectiveCycle #MarketBottom #TariffWar #BondMarket #DownsideRisk #Tariffs #MarketCorrection #MarketPullback #MarketRally #MarketBounce #200DMA #MarketSupport #MarketLows #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

It's Tax Day 2025 — are you ready? Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn review last-minute tax tips, filing strategies, and how to avoid costly IRS penalties. But frankly, if you haven't gotten it done by today... There are market benefits from Tax Day, as some tax return money finds its way back into play; stock buy back will also supply some support to markets. In an event-driven market (tariffs), have we passed the markets' low? How the US Dollar is dealing with pressure. Last-minute tax tips include HSA advice, and shwat diversification is not. Treasury Sec'y Scott Bessent and Bond Market turmoil: Is it beginning to taper? Will there be a battle between the Treasury and the Fed? Lance and Jonathan review HSA's and 72-T rules & penalties. Volatility in the market: There's nothing really wrong. Portfolio management mistakes: You don't really make money until you sell. Everything reverts to the mean; how markets work; dealing with loss avoidance; what goes up must come down. SEG-1: Have We Passed the Market Low? SEG-2: Last Minutes Tax Day Tips SEG-3a: More Tax Tips: HSA's & 72-T's SEG-3b: Volatility in the Market - Why Hedge? SEG-4: You Don't Make Money Until You Sell Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO,w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYhGAfYYmZk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Dollar And Inflation: Don’t Believe The Hype" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollar-and-inflation-dont-believe-the-hype/ "Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/yield-spreads-suggest-the-risk-isnt-over-yet/ "Basis Trade Sent Yields Soaring – Is It A Warning?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/basis-trade-sent-yields-soaring-is-it-a-warning/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Dollar Under Pressure," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_C0sBBJ9EPE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp7qlAhspWQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #TaxDay2025 #TaxTips #IRSDeadline #LastMinuteTaxes #FileYourTaxes #USDollar #ReserveCurrency #InternationalTrade #YieldSpreads #TariffImpact #StockMarket2025 #YieldCurve2025 #RecessionSignals #BondMarketWatch #CreditSpreads #EconomicRisk #FederalReserve #NAFTA #BillMaher #DonaldTrump #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Nobody wants the dollar? Is it really the end of the word as we know it?? While the Dollar has certainly had a decline, going from 110 to 99 on the US Dollar Index. However, things must be placed properly in context: Looking at a 20-yar chart, it is clear that the Dollar is NOT declining, despite recent, short term dips. The Dollar has basically been consolidating ever since 2022. Yes, the Dollar could go lower from here; 91 on the Index is certainly possible in a retest of a long term moving average. But that would still be well within the bullish trend. What we're witnessing now is not surprising, given the dynamics imposed by the tariffs. Currency is basically nothing but a measure of international trade, and most countries store their reserve assets in US Dollars by buying US Treasuries, gold, or US stocks. Countries concerned about the impact of tariffs on their economy are pulling their reserve assets out of dollars and back into their own currencies. That's the rotation that's been going on. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_C0sBBJ9EPE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Dollar And Inflation: Don’t Believe The Hype" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollar-and-inflation-dont-believe-the-hype/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #USDollar #ReserveCurrency #InternationalTrade #MarketLosses #MarketGains #LossReversal #CorrectiveCycle  #BondYields #MarketInstability #Liquidity #MarketBottom #TariffWar #BondMarket #DownsideRisk #Tariffs #MarketCorrection #MarketPullback #MarketRally #MarketBounce #200DMA #MarketSupport #MarketLows #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Are we heading toward a recession in 2025? In this episode, Lance Roberts explores why yield curve inversions and widening credit spreads suggest the risk isn’t over yet, what the bond market is telling investors, and how these indicators have predicted past recessions and what it could mean for your portfolio. Lance covers: * The Tariff impact on Apple * The mistake of confusing trade deficits with tariffs * Markets' relief rally * Tariffs paused not likely to return * Yield curve inversion and economic signals  * Credit spreads and financial stress * Implications for the stock and bond markets * The Fed's hands are not tied * The dark side of NAFTA SEG-1: After Moratorium, Will Tariffs Return? SEG-2a: Bill Maher & Donald Trump SEG-2b: The Importance of Yield Spreads SEG-3: The Fed's hands Are Not Tied SEG-4: YouTube Bans & The Dark Side of NAFTA Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp7qlAhspWQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/yield-spreads-suggest-the-risk-isnt-over-yet/ "Basis Trade Sent Yields Soaring – Is It A Warning?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/basis-trade-sent-yields-soaring-is-it-a-warning/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Get Tariff Relief," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToBQdtd1Ydg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Best Tariff Tactic May Be a Roth Conversion " https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4VjyYxIGg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #YieldSpreads #TariffImpact #StockMarket2025 #YieldCurve2025 #RecessionSignals #BondMarketWatch #CreditSpreads #EconomicRisk #FederalReserve #NAFTA #BillMaher #DonaldTrump #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Markets sold off sharply last week on a higher than expected tariff rate on China and other countries; now, we have had a "repeal" of those tariffs and a corresponding relief rally. That action wiped out most of the losses incurred by tariff news, and markets climbed back up to the bottom of the previous trading range. This morning we are getting close to triggering a buy signal; markets have room to recover as the tariff threat is eased. The question now is whether tariffs will even return, or just remain as is. With stability in tariffs, and the resulting stability in markets, forward earnings estimate may be more reliably established.  Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToBQdtd1Ydg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketLosses #MarketGains #LossReversal #CorrectiveCycle  #BondYields #MarketInstability #Liquidity #MarketBottom #TariffWar #BondMarket #DownsideRisk #Tariffs #MarketCorrection #MarketPullback #MarketRally #MarketBounce #200DMA #MarketSupport #MarketLows #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Quarterly reporting season is upon us, with JP Morgan setting the tone for earnings, as the tariff tango with China continues; how are advisors handling the turmoil? Consumer front loading pulling forward future demand will lead to economic irregularities later. Richard and Matt discuss dealing effectively during corrections and taking advantage of tax efficiencies; creating a "loss bank;" paying taxes means you're making money. cutting through the headlines and the negative influence of social media; the evolution of work in America: Where did all the jobs go? Rich and Matt point out the value of having a financial plan in place during tumultuous times like these; dealing with the psychological shift that comes with retirement; the opportunity for Roth conversions; making"Tikie-Tokies." The Social Security tax torpedo and The Retirees First Act; Rich & Matt discuss taxing Socia lSecurity and the three forms of US taxation; Yellen vs Greenspan. SEG-1: JP Morgan Sets Tone for Earnings Season SEG-2: Managing Money Effectively During Corrections SEG-3: The Value of a Financial Plan in Times Like These SEG-4: The Social Security Tax Torpedo Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Relationship Manager, Matt Doyle, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4VjyYxIGg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Trumps Economic Revolution: Unraveling A Blessing And A Curse" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/trumps-economic-revolution-unraveling-a-blessing-and-a-curse/ "Stupidity And The 5-Laws Not To Follow" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/stupidity-and-the-5-laws-not-to-follow/ "Corporate Yield Spreads Start To Widen" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/daily-market-commentary/ "The Market Crash – Hope In The Fear" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-market-crash-a-set-up-for-a-rally/ "The “Liberation Day” Tariffs Crash The Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-liberation-day-tariffs-crash-the-market/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Reverse All Losses," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLHne8xJaHs&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Monster Rally or market Bottom?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpK9eML4BM4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #RothConversion #TaxStrategy #RetirementPlanning #TariffImpact #StockMarket2025 #MarketRally #InvestingInsights #BullOrBear #FinancialTalk #MarketLosses #MarketGains #LossReversal #CorrectiveCycle #BondYields #MarketInstability #BasisTrade #LiquidityCrisis #MarketVolatility #FinancialStress #MarketBottom #TariffWar #BondMarket #DownsideRisk #Tariffs #MarketLows #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

What really happened behind the scenes as President Trump seemingly performed an about-face on tariffs, sending markets zooming on Wednesday: Markets enjoyed their 3rd best performance since WW-2, erasing all the losses since tariffs were first announced last week. Lance reviews the Basis Trade terror, not tariffs, that caused the turn about. The correction cycle is likely not over, however; markets are challenging resistance. Lance reviews what RIA bought and sold. Lance and Michael discuss how we avoid the next financial crash, and the impact of leverage on the Basis Trade. Where do we go from here? Dealing with Bond Risk. Tariffs add pressure to the economy, and the goal is to lower inflation and interest rates to better manage excessive debt. What is the Fed likely to do next? The market is based on moral hazard; there's too much debt, and too much leverage. Should hedge funds be limited on amount of leverage? Looking at the 3rd largest day on Wall Street since WW-2: Nobody talks about the ten-worst days in the market;don't be impulsive: Use rules to guide portfolio moves. SEG-1: Markets Erase Losses SEG-2: The Impact of Leverage on Basis Trade SEG-3: The Whole Market is Based on Moral Hazard SEG-4: Nobody Talks About the Ten Worst Days in the Market Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpK9eML4BM4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Trumps Economic Revolution: Unraveling A Blessing And A Curse" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/trumps-economic-revolution-unraveling-a-blessing-and-a-curse/ "Stupidity And The 5-Laws Not To Follow" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/stupidity-and-the-5-laws-not-to-follow/ "Corporate Yield Spreads Start To Widen" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/daily-market-commentary/ "The Market Crash – Hope In The Fear" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-market-crash-a-set-up-for-a-rally/ "The “Liberation Day” Tariffs Crash The Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-liberation-day-tariffs-crash-the-market/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Reverse All Losses," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLHne8xJaHs&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Liquidity Cracks" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oo_zfOuvXVw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2705s ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket2025 #MarketRally #InvestingInsights #BullOrBear #FinancialTalk #MarketLosses #MarketGains #LossReversal #CorrectiveCycle #BondYields #MarketInstability #BasisTrade #LiquidityCrisis #MarketVolatility #FinancialStress #MarketBottom #TariffWar #BondMarket #DownsideRisk #Tariffs #MarketLows #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Markets had their largest gain, 9%, since WW-2, reversing all losses since Monday and the tariff announcemets last week. Unfrotunately, we're likely not done with market corrections. This kind of reflexive rally is not uncommon during corrective cycles. Markets will now challenge resistance in the bottoming process. Markets also reverse the deeply oversold conditions in relative strength. Markets had all the ingredients for a rally, and yesterday, markets took flight.  Lance describes the actions our investment committee took as this all unfolded, both additions and reductions in exposures. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLHne8xJaHs&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketLosses #MarketGains #LossReversal #CorrectiveCycle  #BondYields #MarketInstability #BasisTrade #ETF #Liquidity #MarketBottom #TariffWar #BondMarket #DownsideRisk #Tariffs #MarketCorrection #MarketPullback #MarketRally #MarketBounce #200DMA #MarketSupport #MarketLows #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

China retaliates to Trump's retaliation to China's tit-for-tat response to tariffs; downward pressure continues as markets trying to recalibrate with a moving tariff target; there are cracks appearing in the treasury market from the basis trade; what will the Fed do? Lance explains the latest gyrations in markets and the sharp rise in bond yields. Basis trade explained; appears to be at 20X leverage: Is someone getting margin calls and liquidating? Tariffs are not the issue here; will the Fed step in? Wall Mart reports earnings, but cannot provide guidance until tariff trouble is resolved. How much money does it take to move markets one-point? Slowing economy = less demand = high unemployment. It's going to get worse before it gets better. There is an alarming trend of 401k early withdrawals; "leakage" has been a problem for a while. Lance and Danny examine the eruption in the bond market; don't over react. The VIX has spiked, but is moderating. What will the Fed do? The best tariff trade is the Roth conversion. SEG-1: Tit-for-tat on Tariffs SEG-2: What is the Basis Trade? SEG-3: It's Going to Get Worse Before It Gets Better SEG-4: Eruption in the Bond Market Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oo_zfOuvXVw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2705s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Stupidity And The 5-Laws Not To Follow" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/stupidity-and-the-5-laws-not-to-follow/ "Corporate Yield Spreads Start To Widen" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/daily-market-commentary/ "The Market Crash – Hope In The Fear" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-market-crash-a-set-up-for-a-rally/ "The “Liberation Day” Tariffs Crash The Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-liberation-day-tariffs-crash-the-market/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Yields Belie Market Instability," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnT6n_NY_tY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Markets Rally; What's Next?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLv00PZtAHM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #LiquidityCrisis #MarketVolatility #FinancialStress #CreditCrunch #FedWatch #BondYields #MarketInstability #BasisTrade #ETF #Liquidity #StockMarketRally #MarketOutlook2025 #InvestingInsights #FinanceNews #EconomicTrends #MarketCrash2025 #FearAndFinance #InvestingInUncertainty #FinancialCrisis #HopeInTheCrash #EarningsImpact #TariffEffect #MarketAnalysis #InvestorInsight #TradeWar2025 #MarketBottom #TariffWar #BondMarket #DownsideRisk #Tariffs #MarketLows #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing