A new Closest to the Pin announced. UAW strike lingers... Fed rate decision ahead. Consumers are feeling the pinch. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Announcing a NEW Closest to The Pin this week - Plenty of interest in new legislation up for vote - Retail worried about holiday season - hiring trends - Clorox Update - Waiting  and Waiting for Fed decision - markets on hold... Market Update - Ugly and the the week - markets spooked on inflation and eco - Wednesday is the day - Fed rate decision meeting - UAW Strike - EU Leaking proof it's decisions - Oil prices starting to pinch Commentary - Overall - markets are in a consolidation mode, eco is relatively strong with a few dispensed pockets of weakness. - Consumers are starting to feel the pinch - Several bears have finally capitulated - that is a concern (another one of those one sided things that is never discussed - when bulls capitulate it is good - when bears capitulate - it is good)" - Oil prices - that is a concern - Yields still rising - China may be bottoming - that is good sign - Inflation - slowing down, but Fed may have more work to do - Earnings outlook - hard to image much better from here - what is important is the forward multiple Fed Heads - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote on Saturday, while also forecasting the U.S. central bank would lift its economic growth projections when policymakers gather next week. - "On November, we think that further labor market rebalancing, better news on inflation, and the likely upcoming Q4 growth pothole will convince more participants that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) can forgo a final hike this year, as we think it ultimately will," the investment bank's strategists wrote in a report. - Current market bet s that there will be no hike this meeting - but potential for hike (0.25%) next meeting Some Legislative Stuff MJ Bill - The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled marijuana banking legislation for a vote on Sept. 27, a much-anticipated move that would advance one of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s top priorities to the Senate floor. - The bipartisan SAFE Banking Act sponsored by Democrat Jeff Merkley of Oregon has bipartisan support, including from the lead Republican sponsor, Steve Daines of Montana, who heads his party’s campaign committee. - Backers of the legislation have been increasingly optimistic they will easily exceed the 60 votes needed - If signed into law, the SAFE Banking Act would enable cannabis-related businesses (CRBs) to transact business by means other than cash Credit Card Legislation - Credit Card Competition Act of 2023 - It would require the largest credit-card issuing financial institutions in the country—those with assets over $100 billion–to enable at least two credit card networks to be used on their credit cards instead of just one, and at least one of those networks must be a network other than the Visa/Mastercard duopoly. - There is concern that this bill will potentially reduce airline (and other) reward points as competition will drive transaction fee prices down and need to drop incentive programs --- - HEADLINES on socialize media and internet about how this bill kills reward programs - however, does not seem that is a true statement - Similar legislation failed to pass in 2022 Oil - Recap of our discussion last week - Oil looks like destined to keep moving to $92 - then what? - Currently trading at $91 - A move above $92 would put $95 in play - as long as OPEC+ keeps with voluntary production cuts Retail Confidence

All the rage - let's test our testosterone - then shave our legs! China has figured it out....How to hurt the USA. Elon - listening in and shutting down? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up -  Big week - Inflation eyed - 10-year near 4.3% - One European country looks the worst - one recession - Biden  - 5-day world tour - Soft landing - everyone talking about it - Oh, Elon Market Update - Not such a great month so far.... - China  starting to panic (that may be good) -- 2 IPOs on Tap - M&A - One food deal announced - Apple .... More China restrictions (interesting) Happy New Year - Rosh Hashana Friday night. Tesla Upgrade - Tesla Inc.’s Dojo supercomputer may add as much as $500 billion to the company’s market value through faster adoption of robotaxis and network services, according to Morgan Stanley. - Dojo can open up “new addressable markets,” just like AWS did for Amazon.com Inc., analysts led by Adam Jonas wrote in a note, upgrading the stock to overweight from equal-weight and raising its 12-month price target to a Street-high $400 per share from $250. - Adam Jonas had a $250 price for Tesla for a while and was not really positive on  the shares. But, many say he likes headlines, so this is a perfect way to play it. - Jonas cut his price and overall recommendation  in June - Tesla shares up 10% on this upgrade (BTW, Morgan is one of Elon Musk's key advisory firms - so there is that) China - Freaking out? - China's financial regulator on Sunday reduced the risk weighting it attaches to insurance companies' holdings of blue-chip shares and tech stocks, encouraging them to invest more in the country's lagging stock market. - The National Administration of Financial Regulation (NAFR)said on its website that the risk weighting for CSI300 Index constituents would be reduced to 0.3 from 0.35, while that for stocks listed on Shanghai's tech-focused STAR Market would be cut to 0.4, from 0.45. - A lower risk weighting frees up more capital for insurers to invest. - It also set a relatively low risk weighting for private equity investments in China's strategic and emerging sectors. More China - China's economic slowdown could increase the risk of Beijing taking military action toward Taiwan, the Republican chair of a U.S. congressional committee on China said on Monday, drawing a contrast with Democratic President Joe Biden, who said it made it less likely. - So this has to be a dividing line as well? Biden on Sunday called China's econ Yen - Japan - In a weekend interview, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank could end its 7-year-old negative interest rate policy when achievement of its 2% inflation target is in sight - suggesting the BOJ is considering official interest rate hikes as well as an early end its bond-buying, yield cap policy. - The comments seemed to catch markets off guard, sending the 10-year Japanese government bond yield up more than 5 basis points to a 9-year high above 0.7%. The yen surged 1% against the dollar, knocking the U.S. currency back more generally on the foreign exchange markets. Tech - Qualcomm said Monday that it will supply Apple with 5G modems for smartphones through 2026. - Wall Street analysts and Qualcomm officials had previously said they expected Apple to use an internally developed 5G modem starting in 2024. - The continued sales to Apple will boost Qualcomm's handsets business, which reported $5.26 billion in sales in the quarter ended in June, and could soften the blow of potentially losing a critical customer. About 21% of Qualcomm's fiscal 2022 revenue of $44.2 billion came from Apple,

China putting out stimulus ideas daily. Traffic jam in Panama! Weather is causing all sorts of problems Crude oil prices on the rise PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - COVID making the rounds again - J Biden tests positive - Weight loss - UAL Full ground stop today - Gone Private - Back to the Public life (ARM) - More bailouts in China - InfaDisinFlation - Slowing Deflation? Market Update - Hurricane Idalia - The $$ cost to insurers - Employment reports - mixed to good. Fed friendly (but rates creeping again) - What is happening to pharmacies? - GOVY shutdown clock continues - Oil is still rising - Back to School THANK YOU to all who decided it was a good idea to give - we are sending you books for those who graciously donated the special amount to show 666. Employment Report - Revisions to last two months (better) - Payrolls increased to 187,000 - Unemployment rate @3.8% - Rates came down a bit and markets took this as good news VFS Stock China - Continued problems with the economy - New measures over the past week to help real estate sector and lenders - Looks like injection of funds into Country Garden - USD moving to highs against the Yuan OIL - Even though there is a concern about China's economy  - oil keeps rising - Oil prices rose on Friday to their highest in over half a year and snapped a two-week losing streak, buoyed by expectations of tightening supplies. - Saudi Arabia decided to keep (extend) the voluntary cuts into October --- 1 million barrels per day -- Crude oil up 8% YTD - BUT, 21%  in the last 3-months ----- How does that fit with the deflationary story? Supply Chain/Weather Issues - The average wait time for non-booked vessels at the Panama Canal jumped by between 44% and 59% last month as a prolonged drought led to restrictions on daily transits and ship drafts. - The Panama Canal Authority began imposing the restrictions earlier this year in a move to conserve water. Only 32 vessels with a draft of up to 44 feet are now allowed to pass everyday, from 36 ships and maximum draft of 50 feet in normal conditions. - Waiting time averaged 8.85 days for southbound transit and 9.44 days for northbound passage in August, from 5.56 days and 6.55 days, respectively, in July, according to data from the Panama Canal Authority. VinFast - Follow up - OH My - down 70% from peak ARM - Chip design firm Arm on Tuesday submitted an updated filing for its upcoming blockbuster initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange, setting a price range between $47 and $51. - Only 9.4% of Arm’s shares will be freely traded on the NYSE. - Arm was previously dually listed in London and New York, before SoftBank acquired it for $32 billion in 2016. Shoot it up! - Novo Nordisk launched its weight-loss injection Wegovy in Britain on Monday, its second debut in Europe in just over a month as the drugmaker seeks to expand in the region even as it struggles to keep up with soaring demand. - Surging demand for the drug, and Novo's highly effective diabetes drug Ozempic, have sent the company's shares and earnings to record highs. - So no problem taking these shots.....(only very recently approved for weight loss as it is a diabetes medicine) - MIRACLE DRUG - Get that shot in the belly roll!| - Danish drugmaker (Novo Nordisk) briefly unseated LVMH as Europe's most valuable listed company in intraday trading on Friday, ending the French luxury group's 2-1/2 year-long reign at the top. COVID - First lady Jill Biden’s positive test for Covid-19 threatens to upend President Joe Biden’s plans to travel to the G-20 summit in India,

We have some insights from Powell's latest speech. China - trying to talk up markets. Big week for eco data - the softer, the better. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Powell Said - NOTHING NEW, Nothing Old, Nothing Really - Unions are next concern for inflation (wages) - Airlines weighing people - Big week for ECO - investors hoping for some weak numbers Market Update - China - Stock Market Support - Govy Trying - markets up last week 0- broke a couple week down streak - End of month - markets watching for employment data this week (Friday) - Players hitting the ask on high-flyers - ESG - not for $ - Crypto Moving on court rulling SPECIAL EPISODE -666. We are asking you for your support on this devlish episode 666 - Donate exactly 66.60 - BUT  Donors that go out for the big $666 will get a copy of Too Many Eggs hardcopy - that is well worth it. Big Bounce - Fed threads the needle again - Or the algos set to just buy as Fed talks - Butting up against resistance - Looks more like oversold bounce into end of month Yields - 10-Year - drops to 4.25 from 4.45% - Plenty arguing that the latest move was a top in rates - Avg mortgage rate tops 7% Yields - Tuesday Drop - Yeilds and USd dumping after soft JOLTs report - This is a good JOLTS report from the Fed's perspective. The labor market is cooling. U.S. job openings decreased to 8.8 million (lower than consensus expectations of 9.5), the lowest since March 2021. The mismatch between labor demand (openings) & labor supply (hired) narrowed. - Growht names moving up - dragging entire market with them Unions - Pushing hard for wage hikes - Big increase for pilots and UPS drivers recently - UAW President is looking for proposals that include: (or threat of a strike) - Ford GM and Stellantis - - 46% raise ---- 32 hour work week --- Return to traditional pensions - Recently won a 25% pay hike for workers at Ohio EV factory Crypto in the News - Appeals court ruling against SEC in Grayscale spot bitcoin ETF case - so the idea is that there will be a more accessible way to invest in bitcoin (like it is not now) |- Could be included in peions - Grayscale Trusts: GBTC +18%, ETHE +14%, GDLC +22%... Crypto Miners: MARA +17%, GREE +17%, HUT +16%, RIOT +15%, BITF +14%, SDIG +14%... Others with Crypto exposure: COIN +13.5%, MSTR +7.7%, NVDA +3% ECO This Week - Wednesday --- ADP Emplyment Change - (180k) --- GDP (2) 2.4% - Thursday ---- PCE Inflation 0.2% (MoM)* - Friday --- Non Farm Payrolls 185k /3.6% --- ISM Manufacturing ---Average Hourly earnings  0.3%  MoM China - manipulated market - China's stock market in disarray - China Evergrande reopens after 17 month tradig halt (Stock plunges 80%) - Government starting to talk up market - been in a funk for a while --- Reduces stamp duty on stock transactions and other measures to boost confidence (and approves dozens of new funds for investing over weekend) ---- Stock market (CSI 300) opened up 5.5% but trended lower all day Monday (closed up 1.5%) - Lenders and Developer hardships spooking investors AND draining their finances More China - China's foreign ministry said on Monday that inbound travelers to the country no longer need a pre-departure antigen test for COVID-19 from Aug. 30. - US study shows that the abrupt end to Covid restrictions last year may have caused an excess of 2 million deaths. --- Study showed an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths from all causes occurred among people over 30 years of age between December 2022 and January 2023, and were observed in all provinces in mainland China (China said a total of 55,

More Talk from Feds - Jackson Hole Confab Another government shutdown looming? Hot Dogs, get Your Hot Dogs! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - US Rates on the move - Jackson Hole Confab this week - Powell talking Friday - Another government shutdown looming? (September) - Russian Moon Landing - Not so good - Hot Dog Wars - Schmuchalucks Market Update - China freaking out investors - not showing big support - The S&P 500 index fell 2.1% last week, extending the market benchmark's losing streak to a third consecutive week as bond yields climbed to highs not seen in years. - The drop came as Treasury yields rose to multi-year highs; the 10-year Treasury yield hit a 16-year high and the 30-year Treasury yield reached a 12-year high - The SPAC is back? IPO opps? Parts of the market still yearning for risk (casino vs investing) - Moody's gets into the fray - cuts bank ratings Yields - Moving - 10-Year tops 4.35%++ - Long-term on a losing streak --- Meaning: High rates for longer being accepted by markets - also spread may narrow on curve - Minutes released this week from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicated most committee members saw "significant upside risks" to inflation, which could prompt the central bank to further raise its benchmark lending rate. Long vs. Short 10-Year Pop! Moody's - Moody's cut credit ratings of several small to mid-sized U.S. banks on Monday and said it may downgrade some of the nation's biggest lenders, warning that the sector's credit strength will likely be tested by funding risks and weaker profitability. - Moody's cut the ratings of 10 banks by one notch and placed six banking giants, including Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp State Street and Truist Financial on review for potential downgrades. Inflation - Rice - Rice prices surged to their highest in almost 12 years, after India's rice export ban and adverse weather conditions dented production and supplies of Asia's primary staple food, according to the UN's food agency. Tesla - Tesla shares (TSLA) led the consumer discretionary sector's drop, falling 11% last week as reports said the electric vehicle maker reduced the prices for its premium Model S and Model X vehicles in China, its second price cut in the country this week. - The company also launched two cheaper versions of its Model S sedan and Model X sports utility vehicle in the US. NVDA - Earnings out on 8/23 - a good bit of optimism going into the print - Recent upgrade to the stock - HSBC upped their tgt on NVIDIA (NVDA) to $780 from $600 Odd Tech - Earnings AFTER the close on Friday (last) --- Worried investors - why would a company do that? (Friday Night Dump?) - - - Stock is ramping higher on the news.... - Palo Alto Networks — The security software vendor soared 12.5% following an earning's beat after the Friday market close. Fiscal fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.44, topping the $1.28 expected from analysts polled by Refinitiv. Revenue, however, fell short Earnings Roundup - Fabrinet surged 21% after its fiscal fourth-quarter results late Monday topped analysts' estimates. The advanced manufacturing services company posted non-GAAP earnings of $1.86 per share, greater than the $1.80 earnings per share expected - Dicks Sporting Goods shares plunged nearly 20% after the retailer reported an earnings miss and cut guidance for the year, due in part to an increase in retail theft ----- The tell ? Dicks announced management layoff and cost savings a day before the earnings -  Macy's slid about 1.6% after reporting second-quarter earnings.

Economy on fire in the US - while China sinks to new lows. Housing market sentiment slows - hit by high mortgage rates. Big break for big insurers. The Closest to The Pin Winner! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Musk/Zuck cage-fight news (AGAIN) - FITCH - at it again - M&A in Steel industry - China eco spooks markets (Ghost Economics hits) - Impact of Maui Fires - Focus on A Utility Company Market Update - Sentiment shifting - AI craze dulls some tech selling off - Housing index drops - (builder sentiment) - 7% mortgage rates hit hard - EV price wars - led by Elon (beat them and bury them) - Disinflation is slowing ( Confusing?) Inflation - PPI comes out hot - Concern rising that there is commodity inflation returning - Talk of one more hike this year then cuts mid-2024 (Goldman Sachs Update) - Meanwhile - rates movin' up 10's Moving Yield Curve - Getting Crazy! 2/10's Earnings Season - Almost ending - The blended year-over-year earnings decline for the second quarter is -5.2% today, compared to an earnings decline of -7.4% last week and an earnings decline of -7.0% at the end of the second quarter (June 30). - If -5.2% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year earnings decline reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%). It will also mark the third straight quarter in which the index has reported a year-over-year decrease in earnings. - Big mega-cap numbers helped over last week Fitch - Another Warning - Discussed the rationale with Moody's last week - A Fitch Ratings analyst warned that the U.S. banking industry has inched closer to another source of turbulence — the risk of sweeping rating downgrades on dozens of U.S. banks that could even include the likes of JPMorgan Chase. - Another one-notch downgrade of the industry's score, to A+ from AA-, would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers Yen - Intervention - Yen hits 145 - level that has had BOJ intervention previously - Weakening due to easy monetary policy while everywhere else is tightening Yen Japan - 6% GDP (annualized) - expectations were for 3.1% - How do you keep rates at historic lows? China - Just bad news after bad news - So bad they announce a surprise rate cut last night - Discontinued reporting on unemployment of young people - (was record level of  21%+ last month) - Retail sales rose by 2.5% in July from a year ago, below expectations for a 4.5% increase, - Industrial production rose by 3.7% in July from a year ago, below the 4.4% increase analysts had expected - Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% for the first seven months of the year from a year ago, below the 3.8% forecast - The urban unemployment rate ticked up to 5.3% in July from 5.2% in June More China - One of China’s largest private wealth managers has triggered fresh anxiety about the health of the country’s shadow banking industry after missing payments on multiple high-yield investment products. - Zhongzhi is among the biggest players in the country’s $2.9 trillion trust industry, which combines characteristics of commercial and investment banking, private equity and wealth management. - Firms in the sector pool savings from wealthy households and corporate clients to offer loans and invest in real estate, stocks, bonds and commodities. Russian Ruble Woes - Ruble hits 17 month low - discussion that this is because Russia losing the war? - Russia's central bank on Tuesday hiked interest rates by 350 basis points to 12% at an emergency meeting Cage Fight - Done - Zuck: "I think we can all agree Elon isn't serious and it's time to mo...

YIELDS and the Curve - getting weirder. Bear Twist -Tucked and ran. Earnings season update - big change this week to end the season. The Closest to The Pin standings! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Musk/Zuck cage-fight news - Yields spike - Yield curve spreads - Prominent Bear - begs for mercy (Bullish Bear?) - Beer Ball - Reversing The Trend - Banks - Bowie: Under Pressure (who Else was featured on that song?) Market Update - Market Moving - earnings and ECO - Eco report was confusing many - what is the deal? - Earnings - some big hits and some big misses - An update on earnings season - Markets bummed - more downgrades, China data sucks 30 Second Shameless Host Plugs Inflation - Key CPI report out this week (tomorrow) - but many looking for consistent drop (AH sees potential for near-term bounce higher in inflation) - 3.5% - but weaker additions to payroll/jobs. - Wage growth kicking up again - Manheim Used Car Index -1.6% m/m, -11.6% yr/y (seeing moderation, but prices still high) Employment China Eco - China said Tuesday that exports fell by 14.5% in July from a year ago, while imports dropped by 12.4% in U.S. dollar terms. - That's worse than what analysts had expected. - A Reuters poll predicted a 12.5% decline in exports in July from a year ago, in U.S. dollar terms. Imports were expected to have dropped by 5% during that time, according to the poll. Yield Curve - The U.S. yield curve steepened by 20-30 basis points last week - the biggest steepening since March - and the steepening of the 2-year/30-year yield curve by 30 basis points was one of the biggest weekly moves in over a decade. - Lots of talk from Bill Ackman about shorting the long end of the curve (20-30 yr) Earnings Season - Almost ending - The blended year-over-year earnings decline for the second quarter is -5.2% today, compared to an earnings decline of -7.4% last week and an earnings decline of -7.0% at the end of the second quarter (June 30). - If -5.2% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year earnings decline reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%). It will also mark the third straight quarter in which the index has reported a year-over-year decrease in earnings. - Big mega-cap numbers helped over last week DOWNGRADES - Ratings agency Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of several U.S. banks on Monday and warned it was reviewing the status of some of the nation's biggest lenders. - Moody's cut the ratings of 10 U.S. banks by one notch and placed some banking giants on review for potential downgrades. The agency also changed its outlook to negative for several major lenders. Overall, it changed the assessments for 27 banks in the sector. - The downgraded banks include M&T Bank, Pinnacle Financial Partners, Prosperity Bank and BOK Financial Corp . - The banks placed on review for downgrade include BNY Mellon, US Bancorp, State Street and Truist Financial. -"Many banks’ Q2 results showed growing profitability pressures that will reduce their ability to generate internal capital," Moody's wrote in a note. Italy! - How Do You Say Morons in Italian? - deficiente OR il ritardato - Italian banking shares took a beating on Tuesday morning after Italy's cabinet approved a 40% windfall tax on lenders' "excess" profits in 2023. - Just off negative rates and banks being punished again - Italian Deputy Prime Matteo Salvini told a press conference on Monday that the 40% levy on banks' extra profits derived from higher interest rates, amounting to several billion euros, will be used to cut taxes and offer financial support to mortgage holders.

X Platform is here. Or is it Platform X? China economic condition is of interest. Plenty of interesting earnings reports to discuss The Fed lifts rates - how is that playing out? Announcing a new Closest to The Pin! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - X or EX? May be the start of something or maybe the end of something - Saying goodbye to Pee-Wee - Crazy Meme-type crowd buying again - Sending big weapons package to Taiwan - Big news on Mac and Cheese (follow up) - The Bankruptcy Squeeze - fun market moves Market Update - July - great returns across the board - UBER - first ever profit - but there is more to the story - China markets are hot - but their economic condition is horrible - Credit card fee fight - Big boys looking to stop bleed - Fed lifts rates - once again can't help dovish talk - Almost a record! DJIA - Crude WTI at $82, 10Yr at 4.01% - FITCH! July Recap - Markets    July Snapshot   Overview DJIA Record - Almost - Respectable run for 13 days straight days - It missed the opportunity to tie its longest rally on record: a 14-session run in 1897. - Since the Dow's inception in 1897, there have been nearly 33,000 trading days. In that time, we've seen a single 14-day streak of gains and two streaks that ended at 13 positive sessions in a row. Prior to this week, the last 13-day rally was in January 1987. FED - The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy still needed to slow and the labor market to weaken for inflation to "credibly" return to the U.S. central bank's 2% target. - "The (Federal Open Market) Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy, - During the press conference, every-time he tried to have a hawkish moment - he pulled it back with a softening of the stance FITCH - United States ratings cut by Fitch to "AA+" from "AAA", reflects expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, growing government debt, and erosion of governance related to peers - In Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025. The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management. In addition, the government lacks a medium-term fiscal framework, unlike most peers, and has a complex budgeting process. X SIGN - Twitter is now Platform X -- Somehow this is going to become the platform for all things??? === ELON put up a BIG lighted sign on roof of HQ - forced to rip it down after complaints --- On Monday, CNBC saw workers dismantling the glowing X, removing its lights and an arm of the letter, after the construction drew several complaints from neighbors and city officials. The complaints said that it was unpermitted, is a nuisance and, in one complaint, that its flashing lights made it hard to sleep. More Musk - JCD - Pluralistic Article about Tesla's Dieselgate, and Musk lies - https://pluralistic.net/2023/07/28/edison-not-tesla/#demon-haunted-world Mega Millions - Now over $1BILLION --- If there is a grand-prize winner in Tuesdays's drawing, that player can choose to receive the $1.05 billion jackpot in installments or a lump-sum cash payment of $527.9 million, Mega Millions said --- For most people that are playing - realize that about 40% goes to the government. So, you are sending the government 40% of every dollar you spend on lottery. Uber

Panic over  the potential NASDAQ 100 rebalance and here is what happened. Following up on the multi-billion dollar lose by Goldman - AppleCard a bust? The Fed and other important market moving events on the top of out list this week. Announcing a new Closest to The Pin! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Another big deal - panic ended up a nothingburger - Summer Travel upended as wildfires heat up Europe - Biden-omics, this is a thing? - AI - coders going to be goners Market Update - Mega-Cap Tech earnings - Fed meeting this week - odds favor a hike - Bull run continues - Media all abuzz about the DJIA run - most consecutive up days since 2017 - P/E ration on SP500 now at 19.6 (forward) with a negative or zero growth rate Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 117.0 in July (Briefing.com consensus 111.5) from an upwardly revised 110.1 (from 109.7) in June. - In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 95.3. - The July reading marks the highest level for the Consumer Confidence Index since July 2021. - Big jump in UMich last week as well ---- FED HAS TO BE CONCERNED WITH THIS   Consumer Confidence Fear/Greed - Extreme Greed   Fear/Greed Index   Fear/Greed History Microsoft Earnings - Good overall , guides soft for Sept quarter, shares drop 4% AH Google Earnings - AI big driver, good advert numbers, they like what they see - shares jump 6% AH Interesting - All of a Sudden - News that AT&T and Verizon may have lead cable problem --- Raymond James analysts wrote in a note that they estimate AT&T could spend between $264 million and $1.2 billion to remove lead-covered cables. If the company is required to remove all the lead-clad cables, it could cost AT&T roughly $84 million a year in a 15 to 25-year process, the analysts wrote. - Pratt & Whitney determined that a rare condition in powder metal used to manufacture certain engine parts will require accelerated fleet inspection (RTX down 15% on news as they premise to compensate airlines for the disruption) --- Powdered metal had a containment in it and the company started inspecting. ----- There is a concern that fleet needs to be inspected more rapidly. -------- The company expects to inspect another 1000 units next year and expects a very small fallout rate. - This will cause distribution to the airlines. -------------- Decliners: ULCC -5.79% LUV -5.60% JBLU -5.39% HA -5.42% UAL -3.96% DAL -3.14% AAL -2.87% SAVE -2.24 Greece Tourism - Fires burning since Wednesday on Rhodes forced the evacuation of 19,000 people over the weekend as an inferno reached coastal resorts on the island's southeastern coast. - Rhodes and Corfu are among Greece's top destinations for tourists mainly from Britain and Germany. - Tour operators Jet2, TUI and Corendon cancelled flights leaving for Rhodes. Britain's easyJet said on Sunday it was operating two repatriation flights on Monday from Rhodes to London's Gatwick airport in addition to the nine flights already operating between the island and Gatwick. - - AND: The heatwave engulfing the northern hemisphere is set to intensify this week, causing overnight temperatures to surge and leading to an increased risk of heart attacks and deaths, the World Meteorological Organization said on Tuesday. - - - - The WMO warned that the heatwave was in its early phases, saying it expected temperatures in North America, Asia, North Africa and the Mediterranean to be above 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) "for a prolonged number of days this week as the heatwave intensifies". Special Rebalance on Monday - Not as much volatility on the Mega=cap names with the NAS...

bank earnings are out - same pattern as usual. China economy slipping further. Oil prices coming up as summer disruptions hit pipelines. Massive raises in the airline sector - 40%. At the same time, Ford slashing prices. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Bank Earnings - Friday the usual - Markets Trying very hard to stay positive - key analyst upgrades - Toffee Pretzels with Old Bay - Client Sent me a batch - McAllens Best Toffee  (reasonably priced too!) - Big price hikes and bigger price cuts - M&A - Microsoft deal makes DOJ look silly and may pave way for more activity - A look at a very bad stock chart - you probably won't believe the company Market Update - China economics - from bad to worse (what happened to that re-opening trade?) - All about AI - wait to hear in the next batch of earnings reports - Luxury firms feeling the heat after China's poor eco readings - Technicals - MOMO and FOMO - Ahead of Earnings - Clearly some excess exuberance in markets ECO - Two-year U.S. inflation expectations embedded in the Treasury market fell as low as 1.88% on Friday and held at 1.90% on Monday, well below the Fed's 2% target. - Surveys showing surging U.S. household confidence in June, as real wage growth turns positive and jobs remain plentiful, saw a hesitation in interest rate markets on Friday as Fed officials enter a blackout period before the July 26 decision. - Crude moving higher (this week it was because of supply disruptions and OPEC cuts) - Bets are that Fed will increase by 0.25% next week and probably be done. (Even though they are strutting around still talking about at least 2 more hikes and no thoughts about a cut anytime soon. - USD lowest level against a basket of currencies since April 2022 (also showing that expectations are for a Fed to chill out) ---10Y Treasuries - Down from triple top near 4.10% to 3.8% Retail Sales - Total retail sales in June increased a weaker-than-expected 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%), yet May sales were revised up to 0.5% (from 0.3%). Excluding autos, June retail sales also increased a weaker-than-expected 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.1%) in May. After accounting for the upward revisions to May sales, the June results were roughly consistent with expectations. (Briefing) The key takeaway from the report is that control group sales, which are used in the computation for personal spending in the GDP report, were up a solid 0.6%, leaving them far afield of an economy in recessionary distress. - Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales increased 0.3% month-over-month following a 1.5% increase in May. - Gasoline station sales declined 1.4% month-over-month after declining 2.1% in May. - Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealer sales dropped 1.2% month-over-month after increasing 1.4% in May. - Food and beverage store sales decreased 0.7% month-over-month after being unchanged in May. - Nonstore retailer sales jumped 1.9% month-over-month after increasing 0.7% in May. - Food services and drinking places sales rose 0.1% month-over-month after increasing 1.2% in May. - Electronics and appliance store sales increased 1.1% month-over-month following a 2.1% increase in May. Bank Earnings - Schwab comes up smelling sweet - Big flood of new accounts, deposits and decent earnings -  Bank of America - Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.88 per share, $0.04 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.84; revenues rose 11.1% year/year to $25.2 bln vs the $24.98 bln FactSet Consensus. (Stock up 4%) ----- Revenue, net of interest expense, increased 11% to $25.

Make it or break it time - earnings season is right ahead... Fed heads - 8 speakers this week. Tesla - blows away delivery estimates - what that means for profitability. Change of direction for this currency? What the players expect. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - It is make or break - Earnings season is here - Hot weather and hot inflation - 8 Fed Speakers this week - CPI data Wednesday - expected to be soft - Base effect - Summer Doldrums but a Buying Frenzy! Market Update - Resilient - that's the word - Eco divergence as employment stays strong - Tech in the lead - But Banks ALL pass stress tests - Europe favored over US on valuations (new analyst call) - Big best on rising USD being reversed AI - Party’s over for ChatGPT Plus subscribers as OpenAI announced it has temporarily disabled the Browse with Bing beta tool from its service. - Apparently, people used the feature to completely bypass paywalls and consume content for free. - If a user specifically asks for a URL’s full text,” the AI will fulfill the request, including displaying content from paywalled articles - How did it avoid the paywall? ---- Some paywalls are simply pasted over” articles, ChatGPT could simply read the code rendering the text and display the content without a problem. META - New Threads is threat to Twitter ---Twitter has degraded severly since Musk took over (IN AH opinion) - META stock on fire, 100 million accounts created already - Twitter is threatening to sue (of course) West Wing Scandal? - White powder was found in the White House last week - Turned out to be Cocaine... - - Who leaved a stash of coke anywhere - much less the White House? Best Stock Market - This year (to date) ??? - Zimbabwe ---- 5, 10, 20% daily gains - Up 800% YTD - Argentina up only 100% in 2023   Best Market 2023 FOLLOW UP - Hyper-Inflation seems to boost stock markets - Is it possible that this is the playbook that investors are using in US and other developed countries? Change of Plans - Apple is slowing its headset production and also slowing the rollout --- By appointment only? - Goldman is in talks to offload Apple credit and savings products to Amex ---- Goldman trying to rid itself of bad bet on personal/retail finance endeavor under CEO Solomon. Jobs/Employment - End of June: US weekly jobless claims post biggest drop in 20 months as economy shows stamina - July saw a slight uptick in initial claims - ADP report - HOT - 450k new jobs added to payrolls - BLS official disappointed - 200k added but Unemp Rate ticked down to 3.6% -- Jobs report still solid down to wage growth ---- Last 4 months added near 1M new jobs - not a jobs markets that is seen as being held back by rates Fed Rate Plans - Since we last spoke.... Odds are now 83% +/- of a rate hike in July - 10 year treasury over 4% - 2 year treasury over 5% - Inversion of 2/10 worst since 1980s (and holding for LONG time) -- Powell's recent commentary discussed potential for 2 more hikes and acknowledged that the inflation rate will not come to 2% target until at last 2025 ------ Note - they have never nailed a prediction for as long as time itself Meanwhile - Rates do not seem to be bothering many... --- Consumer Confidence hits 17-month high --- Housing seems to be coming back from brief dip - - Many of the homebuilders shares are at ATH China Economy - Another story - PPI inflation shrank to -5.4% below expectations - Industrial profits are in bad shape - Factory activity is in contraction for last few  months - Government pushing stimulus - targeting housing TESLA - Big print on deliveries

National Debt - Which way is it moving?  Cough Syrup risk - toxic supply alert... Fed paused or skipped in last week's meeting - what that really means. New Things - from the screen to your table (New meaning for Binge)   PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Check out ccpstats.com Warm Up - National Debt - Which way is it moving? - Booming business - converting ICE to EV - Cough Syrup risk - toxic supply - Fed paused or skipped in last week's meeting - New Things - from the screen to your table (New meaning for Binge) - Happy belayed Juneteenth Market Update - Bulls are in control - half full - Fed says more hikes to come - no one believes them - ECB raises rates again - even as Eurozone slips into recession - Economic point to downside risk - China stimulus on the way NO SHOW NEXT WEEK - Cruising the Abacos (Bahamas) --- Assuming Tropical storm does not kick up Fed Meeting - Looked like a hawkish call - Unanimous decision to hold this meeting - Powell talked up future rate hikes and changed outlook to include 2 more @0.25% - Markets are not buying it.. --- Initial rates came up then they came in a bit, equity markets moved in similar fashion - What this is telling you is that markets feel that higher rates impacting the economy is fake news ----- BUT, if so, Powell will be even more aggressive Fed Follow Up - Last week, S&P 500 reaches highest in 14 months. - Led by the Mega-caps again. - Markets fell a bit on Friday with Op-X and long weekend Even more Fed Follow up - Friday: The Federal Reserve warned Friday that tighter U.S. credit conditions following a spate of bank failures in the spring could hinder economic growth this year. - In its semi-annual monetary report to Congress, the central bank noted that bank lending conditions have "tightened notably" over the past year due to the rapid increase in interest rates and the recent turmoil within the financial sector. - "Evidence suggests that the recent banking-sector stress and related concerns about deposit outflows and funding costs contributed to tightening and expected tightening in lending standards and terms at some banks beyond what these banks would have reported absent the banking-sector stress," the report said. - That survey also pointed to a sharp slowdown in demand for credit. ----- The percentage of banks reporting stronger demand for commercial and industrial loans tumbled by 55.5% in the first three months of the year, the sharpest decline since 2009 during the global financial crisis. - Powell: "The economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation," he said. "The extent of these effects remains uncertain." Economics - Data showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in May as consumers spent on a range of goods including vehicles. - Another data set showed jobless claims were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 262,0000 for the week ended June 10, but were above economists' forecast of 249,000 claims. - Import prices fell in May and the annual decrease was the sharpest in three years. - That followed a report on Tuesday showing April headline inflation increased by less than expected.  Crypto - According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and despite the U.S. regulator not approving any applications for spot bitcoin ETFs to date, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust will use Coinbase Custody as its custodian. - The SEC rejected Grayscale Investment LLC’s application last year to convert its flagship spot Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF.