What goes up? Uncertainty - that word again! American Exceptionalism - the theme for 2025 that is fizzling out quickly. Back from India - Namaste.... Psychological Indicators. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  Warm-Up - What goes up? - Uncertainty - that word again! - American Exceptionalism - the theme for 2025 that is fizzling out quickly. - Back from India - Namaste.... - Psychological Indicators Markets - Follow up - "They call it dumb money - ruling again" - how did that turn out? ---- Quantum stocks down 40-50% YTD - Billionaires - kissing the ring and getting rug pulled - TRILLIONS (4) lost in market cap - in the name of what again? (MAGA?) Make America God Awful? - Germany's stock market hits all-time high (even though economy is not doing well) - President Donald Trump marked his 50th day in office on Monday. So far, the stock market is off to its worst start since President Barack Obama's first term in 2009. (Have to go back to Nixon for the next "worst" start comparison) Monday Markets - Worst day for the Nasdaq since late 2022 (-4%) - Tesla plunged 15% - worst day on 5 years (Emperor Elon has new clothes?) Market Update (YTD) - NAS100 down 7% - SPY down 4.5% - SPY Equal Weight down 0.5% - ! Russell 100 Growth Down 10.5% , Russell 1000 Value up 1% - Cruise ships and Airlines - Down 20-30% - Emerging Markets UP 3.5% - European Stocks up 7% - China up 16% - Nat gas up 50% - WTI Crude - Down 7%| - 40% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are off 20% from their recent highs Down from the highs Smacked Stocks Is This the Plan? - Tariffs as negotiating chip? --- How Is that working? - Slashing Government employees and spending --- Is this the Twitter Plan of re-org? - Deregulation? - Tax Cuts? - Bitcoin Reserve (major disappointment?) --- Just the forfeited crypto from criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. - US Sovereign Wealth Fund ---- Are they taking down markets to get better pricing to then prop up? - Rates are Down - but not for a good reason (10Yr @ 4.2%) - - Recession concerns are growing When will Fed step in to save the day? --- Fed has taken harder stance - but they don't have the backbone to stay out of it if markets cave Crypto Check - Not good - Bitcoin - big bump post election and then faded - back to exactly where it was pre-election - ETH - back to levels from Nov 2023 How are the Big Boys doing this year? - Billionaire Index Top Movers.... Billions and Billions Elon Update - TSLA - For seven straight weeks, since Elon Musk went to Washington, D.C. to join the Trump administration, shares in his automaker have declined, closing on Friday at $270.48. It's the longest such losing streak for Tesla in its 15 years as a public company. - Several Wall Street firms this week, including Bank of America, Baird and Goldman Sachs, cut their price targets on Tesla. - Elon was bemoaning how hard it was on him and companies right now....running them "with great difficulty" - President Trump said that in light of this "boycott" of Tesla by the public - he is going out to buy a new Tesla this morning as a sign of support. Quick AI Check - Tech Update - Oracle issued quarterly results on Monday that trailed analysts' estimates, but the company offered bullish comments on its cloud infrastructure segment. - Earnings per share: $1.47 adjusted vs. $1.49 expected - Revenue: $14.13 billion vs. $14.39 billion expected - Revenue increased 6% from $13.3 billion in the same period last year. Net income rose 22% to $2.94 billion, or $1.02 a share, from $2.4 billion, or 85 cents a share, a year earlier

Hot and cold openings - the best of 2024. A real hoot to listen to our antics and shenanigans over the past year or so. What food are they discussing or what hot stock may be on the list? All here on this Best-Of Show, produced by Ryan Rediske! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Winner for ORACLE (ORCL) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

CPI comes in HOT, PPI not as bad Retail sales - not a happy number for January News on GameStop DOGE is full attack mode (Dismantling) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  Warm-Up - CPI comes in HOT, PPI not as bad - Retail sales - not a happy number for January - News on GameStop - - DOGE is full attack mode (Dismantling) - The Winner of the ORCL CTP Markets - The call it dumb money - ruling again - More earnings - driving markets - Buying holding tight - tariffs are not worrisome| - Intel parts up for grabs? Retail Sales - According to reports: Consumers sharply curtailed their spending in January, indicating a potential weakening in economic growth ahead, according to a Commerce Department report last Friday. - Retail sales slipped 0.9% for the month from an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in December, even worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% decline. The sales totals are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation for a month in which prices rose 0.5%. - Excluding autos, prices fell 0.4%, also well off the consensus forecast for a 0.3% increase. - A "control" measure that strips out several nonessential categories and figures directly into calculations for gross domestic product fell 0.8% after an upwardly revised increase of 0.8%. Other Economics - In other economic news Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that import prices accelerated 0.3% in January, in line with expectations for the largest one-month move since April 2024. On a year-over-year basis, import prices increased 1.9%. - Fuel prices increased 3.2% on the month, also the biggest gain since April 2024. Food, feed and beverage costs rose 0.2% following a 3% surge in December. - Export prices also increased, rising 1.3%. Back to Work - President Trump was very vocal about people who work from home. Said they they are really not working - “I happen to be a believer that you have to go to work. I don’t think you can work from home. - “Nobody’s going to work from home, they’re going to be going out, they’re gonna play tennis, they’re gonna play golf. They’re gonna do a lot of things—they’re not working.” --- Question: Doesn't President Trump work from home? -----JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon scorned calls from some employees to soften the bank's five-day return-to-office policy in an animated town hall meeting last week, according to a recording reviewed by Reuters. - Employees at the largest U.S. bank have complained on internal message boards and chats about losing hybrid working arrangements, and one group launched an online petition urging Dimon to reconsider. Unions - NOPE - Amazon workers at a facility near Raleigh, North Carolina, overwhelmingly voted against unionizing on Saturday. - Of the 3,276 ballots cast, there were 2,447 votes opposing the union and 829 in favor, according to Carolina Amazonians United for Solidarity and Empowerment (CAUSE), the group seeking to represent workers. The results still need to be certified by the National Labor Relations Board. China - Tariffs of their own - China's finance ministry said Tuesday it will impose 15% tariffs on coal and liquified natural gas imports from the U.S. and 10% duties on crude oil, farm equipment and certain cars, starting Feb. 10. - The tariffs announcement comes as the additional 10% U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports came into effect on Tuesday stateside. Speaking of Tariffs Reciprocal Tariffs - what are they? . Essentially, it's a "tit-for-tat" approach to trade: if Country A charges a 10% tariff on goods from Country B, then Country B will impose a 10% tariff on goods from Country A - President Trump recently signed a memorandum directing...

Wax off Wax On - Waffling - Mr. Miyagi President? Government Cuts - Lots of Bye-Bye Notes. Economics and the latest employment report. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Wax off Wax On - Waffling - Mr. Miyagi President? - Government Cuts - Lots of Bye-Bye Notes - Economics are in.... People happy and not happy - Musk - let's talk about this .... - Praying for the turtles... Markets - Lots of Tumult  - confusion but still a retail bid - Inflation numbers are not worrying (to some) - Employment Report - CPI Due this week - Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum The Karate Kid: Danielson - Wax On Wax off - Trump 2.0: President Miyagi: tariffs on, tariffs off (used to be called waffling) - Mexico and Canada Tarrifs are postponed for a month after "phone calls" from Trudeau and Sheinbaum - China 10% tariffs and now China retaliates --- Supposedly there is a call set up between Trump and XI in the next few days Economics - ADP: Private sector companies added more jobs than expected in January -- Companies created a net 183,000 jobs on the month, slightly more than the 176,000 in December ---Pay for workers who stayed in their jobs grew at a 4.7% annual rate - BLS Payrolls: 143k Added,  (shy of estimates) ---- URate 4% ----Avg Hourly Earnings kick up to 0.5% MoM - - - UMICH for Feb -  67.8 (DOWN from 70.1 - ISM Serices 52.8, down slightly from prior month Color on Confidence numbers - Lots of concern over the potential for inflation in the UMich report --- Biggest issue is the worry about the tariffs and how they may impact prices Earnings: - The S&P 500 is reporting a 13.2% year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q4 2024, which is the highest growth rate reported in three years - 77% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above estimates, which is equal to the 5-year average but above the 10-year average - The Financials, Communication Services, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities sectors are reporting double-digit earnings growth - Starting to seeing some issues in the BIG tech sector - that is why all of a sudden we are also seeing layoffs - expense cutting (although no cuts to cap ex at this point) Earnings - Amazon prelim Q4 $1.86 vs $1.49 FactSet Consensus; revs $187.79 mln vs $187.31 bln FactSet Consensus - AWS segment sales rose 18.9% yr/yr to $28.79 bln - Q4 operating income of $21.2 bln vs prior guidance of $16-20 bln; guides to Q1 operating income of $14-18 bln - Amazon sees Q1 revs $151.0-155.5 bln vs $158.56 bln FactSet Consensus ----Amazon expects $100 billion of capex in 2025 on 'once-in-a-lifetime' AI opportunity More Earnings - Alphabet shares fell more than 9% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the company reported fourth-quarter results that missed on revenue expectations and announced more artificial intelligence investments. - Earnings per share for the Google parent company beat analysts' estimates by two cents. - Revenue: $96.47 billion vs. $96.56 billion expected by LSEG - Earnings per share: $2.15 vs. $2.13 expected by LSEG Even More Earnings - Advanced Micro Devices reported fourth-quarter results on Tuesday that beat Wall Street expectations for sales and earnings, but the stock fell about 5% in extended trading as the company missed estimates in its key data center segment. - Stock kept of falling in the days after too... - Earnings per share: $1.09, adjusted, versus $1.08 expected - Revenue: $7.66 billion versus $7.53 billion --- Clearly this company was way ahead of itself and proposing that they had AI chips that were potentially competitive to NVDA - BUT NOT! Spotify

January is in the books - interesting outcome. Let's work at Costco - wow! Fed is out with their rate plan - not confident in the future Fed Workers getting buyouts PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - January is in the books - interesting outcome - Let's work at Costco - wow! - Fed is out with their rate plan - not confident in the future - Fed Workers getting buyouts - The latest from the Just Kidding department... Markets - Investors Betting Trump will soften his stance on Tariffs - Trump playing chicken on weekends that other countries will bend - Some recovery after last Monday's beating - But the questions is - how long until global upheaval with all of these threats and bashing? Tariffs - Threats to Canada and Mexico - 25% across the board on Canada and Mexico - 10% in China - Blaming immigration, drugs and trade imbalance --- Oil could become an issue with Canada as they send us cheaper (dirty crude) - but several regions could see higher prices by 20% if these tariffs stick - After the close - Trump said at the White House Friday he would 'absolutely' put tariffs on the nation's EU allies. - 'You want the truthful answer or should I give you a political answer?' Trump said when asked about it – underlying his commitment to the issue. He said the tariffs on the EU would be 'very substantial,' without providing details. - Markets closed in the red Friday on this tidbit -------- Follow up - futures and markets off considerably before the open on Monday. 2%+ across the board. Oil UP. -------THEN - A PHONE CALL WITH MEXICO! PAUSE ON RATES FOR A MONTH (10am news) Bitcoin

The Impact of Flagrant Braggadociousness Hard rug pull? Tariffs - giving out like candy TikTok Saga continues - with a twist PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - The Impact of Flagrant Braggadociousness - Hard rug pull? - Tariffs - giving out like candy - TikTok Saga continues - with a twist Markets - Deflating Stocks - Thread Pull (Before the rug pull) - Monday Mayhem - S&P 500 down 1.9%, Equal Weighted down 0.35% - DEEPSeek - Tuesday - plenty of buyers stepping in .... - Staples, Banks are in favor all of a sudden... ANNOUNCING a New CTP! $600 Billion Lost Monday - for one company! BIGGEST one day drop ever! Monday Markets - News of a cheap AI model (program/app) from China hit the tape and it pulled the loose string and tech / markets felll apart. - DeepSeek, has more downloads that ChatCPT - DeepSeek's latest app comes just days after Mr. Trump announced a new $500 billion venture with ChatGPT maker OpenAI, Softbank and Oracle, dubbed Stargate, which he touted as ensuring "the future of technology" in the U.S. (Which is higher than anyone could calulate as the actual value- more like $60-$80 billion) - ORCL -13%, NVDA -17%, AMD -7%, ASML - 8%. Nuke power companies getting squashed - NASDAQ 100 down 3.2% - DeepSeek is also catching investors off guard because of the low development costs for its AI app, which Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives pegged at only $6 million. By comparison, OpenAI, Google and other major U.S. companies are on track to invest a total of roughly $1 trillion in AI over the coming years, according to Goldman Sachs. - FWIW - DeepSeek excels in technical tasks like coding and reasoning, while ChatGPT is better for creative writing and conversational tasks - Founder Liang, who had previously focused on applying AI to investing, had bought a "stockpile of Nvidia A100 chips," a type of tech that is now banned from export to China. Those chips became the basis of DeepSeek, an MIT publication reported. - DeepSeek is looking to differentiate from its competitors with its reasoning capabilities, meaning that before delivering the final answer, the model first generates a “chain of thought” to enhance the accuracy of its responses. - Question: Will this shed reality on the AI bubble or just a bump in the road? ---- Lesson: As an investor, be careful of the current administration's hype - we saw this last time and many of the "deals" never got done fully or at all. ---- In addition, DJIA was flying high as staples and other ramping. HD, CRM, JNJ - 10Yr Yield drops to 4.52% Hard Rug Pull - Hard rug pull: The developers have no intention of completing the project and plan to scam investors from the start In the End... - The narrative with switch... Was:  How great all of this as capital spend is going to be great! - Will morph to: No need for capital spend therefore companies will have the benefit of not spending the money! - The usual Wall Street Machine --- Update: That has already started in the background. The idea that this is great as there is more competition AND a layer has been built that can support faster and cheaper build out of this AI ..... One More Thing - Wang (CEO of ScaleAI) said DeepSeek actually has more H100 chips from Nvidia than expected — about 50,000 of them. - At $25,000 a piece that is $1.25 billion. Sooooooo how is it that it took only $6 million to build.. Big Cuts - The Trump administration is offering millions of federal workers the option to accept buyouts through a government-wide "deferred resignation" program if they resign by Feb. 6. - Those who accept the offer will receive pay and benefits through Sept. 30,

Trump-o-Nomics here we come. MemeCoins making s comeback - then fizzling. Pardons and Executive orders are flying. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  *** California Clean up - Some thoughts and companies... **** Warm-Up - New President - New Leadership - Pardons flying....Even preemptive ones - Another short-seller is out of biz... - Talking bout animal spirits being unlocked as President Trump take office Markets - Coins - on fire (then pull back) - Markets - Moving after last week's CPI print - MemeCoins making a comeback - Pelosi moving stocks ** Need a new symbol for the 1st CTP for 2025 PSA - Quick note - Next week's guest on TDI Podcast - Howard Lindzon - Founder of StockTwits - Follow JCD and AH on Twitter - Listen to No Agenda every week - double the pleasure on Thursdays and Sundays at 2P (ET) Inauguration - Any major takeaways? - Trump wearing a purple tie - that does not seem like an accident - Significant number of executive orders First orders of business--- Energy is key area along with DEI, TWO Genders (only), Temporary pause on China tariffs, National emergency at borders, ending EV mandates - National emergency: Borger, energy - "That national energy emergency will unlock a variety of different authorities that will enable our nation to quickly build again, to produce more natural resources, to create jobs, to create prosperity and to strengthen our nation's national security" - Opening up Alaska: "Alaska is so key for our national security, given its geostrategic location, and it's a crucial place from which we could export LNG not only to other parts of the United States, but to our friends and allies in the Asia Pacific region" - DEI -could now be DOA - Withdrawing from Paris clime agreement - - - The incoming administration plans to review and potentially end what the official described as "discriminatory programs," including environmental justice grants and diversity training initiatives. --- Retaking Panama Canal and plant a flag on Mars -- Do we want to discuss that President Trump did not put his hand on the bible as he was being sworn in? ----EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE: For this purpose, we are establishing the external revenue service to collect all tariffs, duties and revenues. It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our treasury coming from foreign sources, the American dream will soon be back and thriving like never before to restore competence and effectiveness to our federal government - Vivek Ramaswamy is out as Elon Musk’s co-leader as he is running for Governor of Ohio Pre-Emtiove Pardons - President Joe Biden on Monday issued preemptive pardons for several family members, citing concerns that they will be targeted by “baseless and politically motivated investigations.” - Biden pardoned his brother, James Biden; James’ wife, Sara Jones Biden; his younger sister, Valerie Biden Owens; Owens’ husband, John Owens; and his other brother, Francis Biden. - “The issuance of these pardons should not be mistaken as an acknowledgment that they engaged in any wrongdoing, nor should acceptance be misconstrued as an admission of guilt for any offense,” Biden said in a press release. --- AND January 6th "Hostages" pardoned Tariffs - Seems that the squeeze is on - 25% on Mexico (MexAmerica) and Canada (CanAmerica) starting Feb 1st. - HOT FLASH - 10% on China starting Feb 1 Musk - Feelings hurt? - Removing of EV mandates - not in his best interest.. Right? - Could it be a swap for more lucrative defense and space contracts? TikTok - Goes dark for a little while over he weekend (Apple, Google remove app and offline on web)

People are catching on - Fed has no clue Investors are nervous - lots of intraday volatility Correction - could it be? USA- Going DEEPER into debt DOGE - already making excuses PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - People are catching on - Fed has no clue - Investors are nervous - lots of intraday volatility - Correction - could it be? - USA- Going DEEPER into debt - DOGE - already making excuses - Next Monday - Market Holiday and Inauguration day Markets - No happy - inflation and jobs (A 1-2 Punch for markets) - CPI and PPI this week - make it or break it? - Rates hitting key resistance - Oil spikes - multi-month high All of a sudden.. - Microsoft, Facebook and other companies are cutting staff again - Talk of tough year ahead... What is up? If they don't cooperate? - Cut their pay! - China is set to slash pay for staff at its top three financial regulators, including the central bank, by about half, as part of a regulatory revamp unveiled in 2023 to bring their salaries in line with other civil servants - Starting from this month, staff at the People's Bank of China (PBOC), National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) and China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will see total income slashed by about half. More China - Pull Forward - China’s trade data in December beat expectations by a large margin, with exporters continuing to frontload shipments as worries over additional tariffs mount, while the country’s stimulus measures appear to be supporting demand in the industrial sector. - Can it last? Let's Talk Turkey - Fed has no idea what is going on - They simply can move markets, (equity and fixed income) by liquefying markets - HOPE that they have the general trend and can regulate the flow so not overheat or overcool - In reality, their forecasting tools are crap --- BUT, focus on what they do, not what they say or their outlook Employment Numbers - Summary: Nonfarm payrolls increased by a stronger-than-expected 256,000, the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, average hourly earnings growth year-over-year was a sturdy 3.9%, and more people were employed. - Much better than anticipated ! - Unemployment rate drops - So, we see higher prices and better employment - markets spooked that Fed out of touch - One-Two punch for equities Result - Steepening yield curve Market Sell-off - NASDAQ 100 off 6% from the highs - Big names down more (NVDA 13%, Tesla 18%, Apple 10%, NFLX 10%) - SOOOO - Big Cap Tech is in a correction and dragging down markets - Markets are in the RED for the year and unchanged/under the pre-election day move. - More speculative (runners) stocks are down even more... Quantum Stocks - DUH! - Sell-off deepened as Zuck cautioned that the potential is still years (and years) away (on Joe Rogan Show) --- Zuck looking like he wants to follow in Elon's footsteps Quantum Stocks More Zuck - Bashing Apple... - No innovation, random rules - "So how are they making more money as a company? Well, they do it by basically, like, squeezing people, and, like you're saying, having this 30% tax on developers by getting you to buy more peripherals and things that plug into it," Zuckerberg said. "You know, they build stuff like Air Pods, which are cool, but they've just thoroughly hamstrung the ability for anyone else to build something that can connect to the iPhone in the same way." Oh - and this... - Meta on Friday told employees that its plans to end a number of internal programs designed to increase the company's hiring of diverse candidates, the latest dramatic change ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's second Wh...

Grinch Ending .... No Santa Rally CTP Results are IN! Close race Cocktails -> Cancerous now PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Grinch Ending .... No Santa Rally - CTP Results are IN! Close race - Cocktails -> Cancerous now - New rules for medical bill deadbeats - Markets - Poor end of year - hard hit by Grinch - killed Santa Rally - Gym parking Lots - Resolutions for January - Yields starting to becom a problem - CME Fed Funds Futures --> No CUT MAN!   Market Update - December Market Update Sector Update January Markets - As expected, the start of the year is typically a time when people make resolutions they hope to keep. - In the finance world, we often hear about returning to discipline, cutting losers, adding to winners, and adhering to all the fundamental rules. - Additionally, at this time of year, investors may consider becoming more aggressive, less aggressive, more diversified, or investing in last year's winning stocks. - These thoughts and actions contribute to market volatility, which usually fades away within a couple of months when resolutions are forgotten ---- Much like how the parking lots at local gyms are packed every January, but plenty of spots open up by March. Big Issue - The big issue we need to focus on now is the continuing increase in rates as the 10-year Treasury yield has now breached a key resistance level of 4.6%, which is significant. - There are several reasons for this move, but the simple facts are that the economy is still growing and prices are on the rise. ISM Report - Not Helping (From Briefing.com) - The ISM Services PMI increased to 54.1% in December (Briefing.com consensus 53.0%) from 52.1% in November. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the December reading reflects services sector activity accelerating from November. - The key takeaway from the report is that it was a double-whammy for rate cut expectations in that the expansion in services sector activity accelerated while the prices index picked up noticeably, printing its first reading above 60.0% since January 2024. • The Business Activity/Production Index increased to 58.2% from 53.7%. • The New Orders Index bumped up to 54.2% from 53.7%. • The Employment Index dipped to 51.4% from 51.5%. • The Prices Index jumped to 64.4% from 58.2%. • The Supplier Deliveries Index rose to 52.5% from 49.5%. • The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 44.3% from 47.1%. No Cuts for A While - With prices on the rise and the economy in good shape... CME Fed Funds Nat Gas! - Natural gas futures prices surged last Monday, hitting a new 52-week high following reports of a colder-than-usual temperature outlook for January. - Natural gas February futures rose around 15% during the session after an updated outlook by The Weather Co. and Atmospheric G2 released Sunday showed that the temperature forecast for next month is expected to be colder than average in the East, specifically from Florida to Maine as well as certain parts of the Great Lakes. - POLAR VORTEX? - Already prices are fading.... Booze Bummer - The U.S. surgeon general issued a new advisory warning Friday about the link between alcohol consumption and increased cancer risk, and pushed for policy changes to help reduce the number of alcohol-related cancers. - U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy said there is a "well-established" link between drinking alcohol and at least seven types of cancer, including breast, colorectum, esophagus and liver. For cancers including breast, mouth and throat cancers, increased risk may start around one or fewer drinks per day, according to his office.

Another year is in the record books.... Let's   not forget about the not-so boring election, Hacks, beached and outages and PEAK NVDA! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign...   Checking out the early CTP Cup Standings   HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? 2024 - DH Closest to The Pin Cup - Up and Running   Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Shutdown..... AVERTED Mergers - Auto Industry big move Lots of Trump Talk The Market's new favorite stocks PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign... Warm-Up - Shutdown..... AVERTED - Mergers - Auto Industry big move - Lots of Trump Talk - Deli Stock Scheme - Update - Holiday Tidings! - Markets - S&P 500 Equal weight down 6% MTD, Small Caps down 8% - The New favs? Quantum Computing Stocks - Santa Like them..... - Index inclusion has become a thing Checking out the early CTP Cup Standings EVERYONE IS IN! - 7 Contestants.... Fed Meeting Dec 18th - Fed freaked out markets - All of a sudden they are projecting that inflation is not going to come down to their 2% level into 2026 - DJIA was donw 1000 points and it was an ugly day overall. - Onc day later, PCE comes out not too far aay from assumptions and market takes off - Just goes to show that DJIA - Records? - Follow up - it was 10 days and the last time that happened was 1974 Meanwhile - XMAS Rally - Once big day down, then a test and BOUNCE - Most of the Fed Day losses have been wipe out - still much damage in December --- Once again - Mega cap holding things up ---- EVEN though 10Yr >4.6%  - this is an important price point... Failed  couple of times before. Quantum Computing Stocks - Ever since Alphabet (Google) announced that they made progress, been some crazy moves on a few names - with YTD returns -- D-Wave Quantum Inc  QBTS  (825%) -- Rigetti Computing Inc   RGTI  (1,050%) -- Quantum Computing Inc   QUBT  (1,900%) -- Defiance Quantum ETF   QTUM (51%) -- IONQ Inc    IONQ   (240%) ---(none seem to be making any money  - actually losing a ton) More Quantum - Willow's speed is almost incomprehensible — according to Google, it's able to perform a computation in under five minutes that would take one of today's fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years to solve. Ten septillion is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years. - Concern has turned to the potential for this technology to break down crypto (or other) cryptography. --- It may take years - but this could be something we need to watch as a byproduct, the need for better security from quantum hacks Auto Merger - Japanese automakers Nissan and Honda on Monday announced they had entered into official talks to merge and create the world's third-largest automaker by sales. - The deal would aim to share intelligence and resources and deliver economies of scale and synergies while protecting both brands - Nissan's strategic partner Mitsubishi has been offered the chance to join the new group and will take a decision by the end of January 2025. - Lots of things to iron out before this deal gets done Index Traders - Hang on... - Huge moves to reset these days - Companies are competing to get to NASDAQ and NYSE to gain inclusion as they know share prices will potentially pop - Palatntir is banking on that as they said in their recent announcement and one reason was to get inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 - These kind of index changes has buig impacts on stocks - - ALSO, there should be some movement over the next month as there will be re-balancing going on as 2024 big run for markets/stocks Trump Talk/Plans - Trump said he will not let the canal fall into the 'wrong hands' - Trump accused Panama of charging excessive fees to use the canal - Panama's President Mulino defends canal's independence and fees - US handed over control of the canal in 1999 - Talk that we could take it back - Twitter: "Every square meter of the Panama Canal and the surrounding area belongs to Panama and will c...

Kissing Ass is good for the wallet Fed is about to meet and make a rate decision Time's Person of the Year! Whistleblower found dead PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign... Warm-Up - Kissing Ass is good for the wallet - Fed is about to meet and make a rate decision - Person of the Year! - Whistleblower found dead - Markets - Odd - DJIA down for 7 days, NASDAQ can't be stopped (TSLA pushing this time - once again a reason to look at market cap weightings) - Fanning the flames - A new name into NASDAQ 100 - Earnings - A few interesting data points - Social Security benefits increase - Yes and No, Inflation and No Inflation - Not since... 2018 or 1978? Reminder -  the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup Michael Bowling Kirk Saathoff Eric Harvey Chad Laajala Tim Dewey Paul Kinder Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner) ---Emails have gone out... Fed Meeting Dec 18th - 89% probability of a 0.25% rate cut - Fed has its back to the wall - markets are dictating - No reason to believe that they need a cut, although the would not want to worry markets or surprise them in any way - All reporting shows that they will do the cut, back off a little as to the amount of potential cuts coming in recognition of the fact that the economy is still running well DJIA - Records? - The DJIA has been down for 8 days in a row and that has not happened since 2018. - If the DJIA declines today, that would take us back to the 1970's, 1978 to be exact when there was a 9 day decline. - But, that is the DJIA, the NASDAQ an SP500 have been holding up. - Moreover, the fall for the DJIA this month is less that 3%, so not much damage done to the index itself. Another Sinkhole Warning - SP500 equal weighted is down more than 3% for the MTD. - SP500 up slightly MTD - NASDAQ 100 up moer than 5% - Small-caps down 3% BUT - Wait.... - A measure of wholesale price rose more than expected in November, adding fuel to the belief that progress in bringing down inflation has slowed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. - On an annual basis, PPI rose 3%, the biggest advance since February 2023. - This is after an inline CPI number. - Rates are on the rise for bonds, as expected --- Mark this date - inflation could make a comeback in 2025 and totally offside the fed (And they are fanning the flames ) AND Consumers are Spending - November Retail Sales 0.7% vs. 0.5% consensus; prior revised to 0.5% from 0.4% But - ISM Composite - Rolling Over ISM Composite CHIPS - Shares of Broadcom popped more than 21% Friday morning, pushing the company’s market cap beyond $1 trillion for the first time. It will be Broadcom’s best trading day on record if the move holds until the closing bell. The move comes after the company reported fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street’s expectations for earnings and showed strong artificial intelligence revenue growth. - Broadcom reported $14.05 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, up 51% year over year but shy of the $14.09 billion expected by analysts according to LSEG. In Broadcom’s semiconductor solutions group, which includes its AI chips, revenue increased 12% to $8.23 billion from $8.03 billion a year ago. More Chips - US planning on restricting AI  Chips around the world - Planning on closing China's backdoor access -Washington plans rules limiting semiconductor shipments to some countries accused of supplying Beijing - NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, AMD, INTC, SMH Nuclear - getting some traction - SMRs - Small Nuclear Reactors - Small modular reactors,